A Mediterranean Union?

That is the proposal being put forth by the newly elected President of France, Nicolas Sarkozy. The proposed union would consist of sixteen southern European, Middle Eastern and North African countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea: Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Lybia, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. The union though primarily economic, would also involve member countries in discussions over controversial issues such as Turkey's EU membership, illegal immigration, counter-terrorism, energy security, the Israel-Palestinian conflict and would provide another forum where Israel and its Arab neighbors could participate together. Sarkozy has said that he wants the countries ringing the Mediterranean to form a council and hold regular summit meetings under a rotating presidency and envisions it as being a bridge between Europe and Muslim world.

While some countries have expressed guarded to full support for the proposal, Turkey has balked as it sees it as nothing more than a mechanism to keep Turkey out of the EU. This fear is not misplaced as keeping the EU closed to Turkey was part of Sarkozy's campaign platform. In fact, Sarkozy has argued in the past that Turkey has always been part of Asia Minor and not Europe. Earlier this week, I posted on the news that Sarkozy had appointed Bernard Kouchner as Foreign Minister, and brought up the possibility that this move could signal a change to his well known opposition to Turkey's entry to the EU. That possibility now seems more remote, since as Dr. Hadar argues, Sarkozy sees the MU as an viable alternative to Turkish membership in the EU.

According to the article, Sarkozy sees the MU working closely with the EU, eventually forming joint institutions, even as the organizations remain separate and distinct entities.

According to Dr. Hadar, (who has a more in depth article at the National Interest) the proposal is an extension of the 1995 EU sponsored Barcelona process which sought to bring 12 Mediterranean countries into a free-trade zone by 2010. This Barcelona initiative (aka Euro-Mediterranean Partnership) is currently the only forum where "Israel and Arab countries sit around the same table." Dr. Hadar also argues that Sarkozy's move away from France's old Arabist foreign policy makes sense because trade between Israel and the EU has increased threefold in the last decade. At the same time, the Middle East exports oil and thousands of poor, disgruntled immigrants which have become a demographic time bomb in the EU hence any policy aimed at removing the incentives to immigrate to the EU is seen as essential. As the IHT article points out, this is similar to the argument made in favor of NAFTA, mainly, "give them jobs where they are rather than having them come across the border. As many of you will no doubt point out, this didn't exactly work for us either. Notwithstanding, Dr. Hadar sees the MU as a positive thing for Turkey, because it would do for that country what NAFTA has done for Mexico, or accelerate trade and investment ties between the parties to the agreement. He argues that such interaction between Turkey and the EU will be positive because currently the majority of public opinion within the EU is with Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy or in opposition to Turkey's entry. In a way, the MU would become a consolation prize for Turkey as due to "its sheer size, economic success, and military power would emerge as one of the leaders of the MU" enhancing its capacity as a bridge between Europe and the Muslim world.

Dr. Hadar further argues that such an initiative may be seen by the U.S. as an attempt by France to take advantage of America's weakened position in the region, but it shouldn't. Rather, he argues, the proposal should be seen as a strategy complementary of the U.S.'s military strategy in the Middle, both of whose ultimate goal is "advancing the cause of peace and political and economic reform" in the region.

More recently, President Sarkozy has said "that breaking Europe's deadlock over institutional reforms was a more urgent priority than challenging Turkey's membership ambitions; this as he made his inaugural visit to EU headquarters with a view of pushing Chancellor Merkel's drive to seek a deal at the June 21-22 summit in Brussels. This may also reflect Sarkozy's confidence that other EU members (such as Austria) will support it in preventing the unanimity required to approve Turkey's membership.

Shaheen at Aqoul takes a more skeptical view of Sarkozy's proposal. He argues that such a proposal would be hard for Sarkozy to push because France would not be the only actor. He would also have to deal with the reality that many Mediterranean countries will likely not be very enthusiastic about it and finally, in the minds of French voters, it isn't a high profile issue. The IHT article addresses this point by arguing that unlike past proposals (like Barcelona), Sarkozy's includes only those countries with an immediate coastline in the Mediterranean and an interest in cooperation. It remains to be seen just how much capital Sarkozy is willing to invest in this, and how much support it can gain among the countries who would be involved.

Still, the proposal is very interesting because to some extent it follows Barnett's theory in PNM and BFA. As Michael Barnier (Sarkozy's campaign advisor) put it, "the genius of the EU's founders was to give countries that had a history of fighting each other an incentive for peace...The deeper your economic integration, the greater your interest not to start a war."

In my view, Turkey should actually work with France on this to show that it is ready to be the bridge between Europe and the Middle East and North Africa. In the short term, this may delay Turkey's entry into the EU, however, demonstrating how much of a bridge it can be, should prove a powerful argument going forward. More importantly for the US, this proposal will force Europe to take a more active role in the Middle East, something that can only be a good thing given Sarkozy's push to move away from France's old pro-Arabist posture.